Weather to Watch: October 26, 2026

Coastal water, mountain snow and slow-clearing fog offer five ways to read the atmosphere this week. This October 26 edition separates Monday's conditions from the later-week outlooks in Alaska, Hawaii and the Inland Northwest.

1. Western Alaska: the storm track matters as much as its strength

When to watch: Thursday–Friday, October 29–30 along the West Coast, with precipitation spreading into the Interior through Saturday, October 31.

NWS Fairbanks is watching a Bering Sea storm expected to contain remnants of Typhoon Champi. This follows several earlier systems; Monday's rain, snow and high surf are not the arrival of that later storm.

The remnant system brings another supply of moisture, but its path will shape coastal effects. The discussion describes a more southerly track producing more easterly winds along parts of the West Coast, limiting flooding potential from Hooper Bay north. A farther-north track could bring coastal flooding and erosion back to those areas. A low central pressure alone cannot tell a coastal community what water levels to expect.

What to notice: Compare successive official track forecasts with the forecast coastal wind direction and water levels. Keep valley rain and higher-elevation snow separate. The exact landfall location remains uncertain, so use updated NWS coastal forecasts rather than treating one model track as settled.

Source: NWS Fairbanks discussion, issued October 25 at 3:38 PM AKDT.

2. East-central Florida: wind, swell and high tides overlap

When to watch: Monday, October 26, through at least midweek.

High pressure to the north and lower pressure near the Bahamas and Florida Straits maintain a tight pressure difference across the region. That pattern supports persistent northeast winds. NWS Melbourne forecasts dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding and substantial beach erosion as onshore swell overlaps high astronomical tides.

These effects do not all end when the local wind eases. Swell can keep reaching the coast, and another high tide can raise the starting water level for incoming waves. The discussion also keeps hazardous boating conditions in place as winds gradually weaken later in the week.

What to notice: Compare remote buoy observations and official tide information over several cycles, keeping wave height separate from coastal water level. A brief wind lull does not establish that the coast is safe. NWS Melbourne advises against entering the ocean during this event; use remote records rather than approaching rough surf. Our Outer Banks tide-gauge comparison shows why observed water and predicted tide are different measurements.

Source: NWS Melbourne discussion, issued October 26 at 2:22 AM EDT.

3. Inland Northwest: a colder second system lowers the snow line

When to watch: Monday showers, then a colder round Tuesday night, October 27, through Thursday night, October 29.

NWS Spokane describes two stages. Monday's weakening low brings mainly light precipitation with snow levels around 5,000–6,000 feet. The next, colder system lowers snow levels to roughly 3,000 feet over the Cascades and north-central Washington and around 4,500 feet in the Idaho Panhandle.

A snow level is a forecast guide to where falling precipitation can reach the ground as snow. It is not a promise that every location above it receives the same accumulation. Terrain, shower coverage and timing still matter. The discussion expects valley rain and mountain snow, with winter driving conditions possible at passes.

What to notice: Compare mountain webcams and road reports at different elevations with the changing forecast snow level. Radar locates precipitation aloft; it cannot by itself establish snow or road conditions at a pass. Follow official transportation reports before traveling.

Source: NWS Spokane discussion, issued October 25 at 10:35 PM PDT.

4. Hawaii: shifting winds can move the wet side of an island

When to watch: Heavy-rain potential begins Tuesday, October 27, and lasts through at least Thursday, October 29. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon is the favored period in this discussion.

Monday's passing trade showers are separate from the heavier-rain outlook. NWS Honolulu expects a moisture-rich trough to settle near the islands. Small lows moving along it could shift the wind, changing which slopes face the incoming moist air. Air rising over terrain can make rain more efficient on those exposed slopes.

That makes a fixed “windward side” assumption less useful as the pattern changes. The office says the small features' timing and location cannot yet be predicted confidently, and rainfall forecasts may change substantially. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

What to notice: Compare wind direction with the location of repeated radar showers and local rain reports. A broad moisture plume does not mean equal rainfall across every island. Check later NWS forecasts for changes in the focus and timing of heavy rain.

Source: NWS Honolulu discussion, issued October 25 at 8:05 PM HST, retaining the earlier afternoon forecast discussion.

5. Southwest Montana: fog clearing and low-cloud clearing are different

When to watch: Monday morning, October 26, with low ceilings potentially continuing into midafternoon.

NWS Great Falls expects dense fog in southwest Montana to clear slowly. Increasing high clouds can limit additional overnight cooling and fog expansion, yet also reduce daytime heating that helps erode existing fog. The same cloud layer can therefore affect fog formation and clearing differently.

The aviation discussion expects fog to burn off toward late morning while low ceilings persist into midafternoon. Improving ground-level visibility does not necessarily mean the whole cloud layer has cleared. Later Monday night brings a separate round of rain and snow.

What to notice: Compare surface visibility reports with reported cloud ceilings at several locations. A webcam showing a clearer view near the ground can still sit beneath a low overcast. Do not assume one improving station represents all southwest Montana.

Source: NWS Great Falls discussion, issued October 26 at 4:15 AM MDT.

This dated selection uses NWS discussions available by 6:30 AM Eastern on October 26, including the previous evening's Alaska, Washington and Hawaii discussions. For current forecasts and warnings, follow the National Weather Service.