Weather to Watch: October 25, 2026

A break in rain or wind does not always mean the water has receded. October 25’s lessons connect Southeast tides, Four Corners runoff, New Mexico storms and Alaska’s changing precipitation. Hawaii adds a look ahead to a wetter pattern next week.

1. Southeast South Carolina and Georgia: compare the tide with the water actually recorded

When to watch: October 25–28, especially the morning high tides October 26–28. Dates are local EDT.

NWS Charleston expects repeated coastal flooding as high astronomical tides combine with persistent northeast flow. The discussion links rising astronomical tides to the October 26 full moon and October 28 lunar perigee. It expects the highest water levels around Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning tides, while noting uncertainty in how much easing offshore wind could limit departures at Fort Pulaski.

Compare each gauge’s observed level with its own tide prediction over several cycles. A prediction supplies a baseline; persistent wind can keep water above it. Charleston and Fort Pulaski have different thresholds, and gauge height is not flood depth above a road. Our Outer Banks gauge comparison explains that distinction with observations. Use remote records and local NWS products rather than approaching flooded shorelines.

Source: NWS Charleston discussion, issued October 25 at 3:12 AM EDT.

2. Southeast Utah and southwest Colorado: rivers can rise after the heaviest rain eases

When to watch: Sunday, October 25, from morning river crests into possible afternoon showers and storms. Dates are local MDT.

The captured NWS Grand Junction discussion was issued Saturday night. It reports ongoing flooding, with some rivers already past their crests while parts of the San Juan River through the Four Corners and southeast Utah continued to rise. Additional runoff can reach downstream gauges after rainfall becomes lighter or more scattered.

The forecast allows a break in showers before a cold front renews afternoon storms. Compare rainfall upstream with the local river gauge trend. A clearing radar frame does not establish that downstream water has peaked, and one falling gauge does not describe the whole basin. Follow official river forecasts and warnings.

Source: NWS Grand Junction discussion, issued October 24 at 11:03 PM MDT (October 25 at 05:03 UTC).

3. New Mexico: moderate rain can matter on saturated ground

When to watch: Sunday, October 25, through the evening and overnight. Dates are local MDT.

NWS Albuquerque forecasts widespread showers and thunderstorms on the eastern plains as an upper low moves across the Four Corners and Colorado. A few storms may turn severe over east-central and southeast areas during the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats, with a lower risk of an isolated tornado.

Flood risk extends beyond the strongest storms. The discussion says saturated ground in parts of north-central, northwest and west-central New Mexico could develop flooding problems with only moderate additional rain. Compare where rain has already fallen with where new cells develop. Radar color alone cannot establish runoff or hail at the ground; use NWS warnings and river information for impacts.

Source: NWS Albuquerque discussion, issued October 25 at 2:25 AM MDT.

4. Hawaii: Sunday’s trade showers are separate from next week’s heavy-rain potential

When to watch: Weakening trades October 25–26, then a possible wetter pattern from Monday night, October 26, through at least Thursday, October 29. Dates are local HST.

NWS Honolulu’s Saturday afternoon discussion expects passing trade-wind showers to favor windward and mountain areas before a deeper tropical moisture plume approaches next week. It identifies Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as the most likely period for heavy rain and thunderstorms, but models have not settled on where the greatest concern will be.

More moisture gives developing clouds a larger supply of water; it does not guarantee the same rain everywhere. Compare the changing cloud and shower coverage with later NWS updates. Keep the timing distinction clear: this is an outlook for next week, not a claim that widespread heavy rain is underway Sunday. Wind direction after Tuesday also remains uncertain.

Source: NWS Honolulu discussion, issued October 24 at 3:38 PM HST (October 25 at 01:38 UTC).

5. Northern Alaska: a moisture plume does not give every elevation the same precipitation

When to watch: Sunday, October 25, into Monday, October 26, with another low expected October 26–27. Dates are local AKDT.

NWS Fairbanks’ Saturday afternoon discussion describes a second system arriving Sunday along a North Pacific atmospheric river. Warmer air favors rain near valley level in many locations, while higher terrain, especially the Brooks Range, continues to receive snow. Brief valley snow and pockets of freezing rain remain possible in the Interior.

Compare precipitation reports by elevation and location, rather than applying a single rain-snow line to all northern Alaska. Warm air arriving aloft does not guarantee that road surfaces have warmed. The next low’s track and timing remain uncertain, and the West Coast’s elevated water is a separate concern from Interior precipitation.

Source: NWS Fairbanks discussion, issued October 24 at 3:59 PM AKDT (23:59 UTC).

Based on NWS discussions available by the October 25 cutoff of 6:30 AM Eastern. The Colorado, Hawaii and Alaska sources were issued on the previous local date. These are dated learning examples, not live warnings. For current forecasts and alerts, visit weather.gov.