Weather to Watch: November 5, 2026

A wind surge can arrive well before the heaviest rain. A lake can keep showers going after a low moves on. Today's five forecasts show how wind, terrain, and water change what you see at the surface.

1. Southeast Alaska: Follow the wind as the front passes

When to watch: Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, November 5, Alaska time.

NWS Juneau expects a deep Gulf low to push a fast-moving front through the panhandle. Storm-force winds are forecast in parts of the marine area, including Clarence Strait. On land, gusts could reach 65 mph around Ketchikan, Prince of Wales Island, and Annette Island.

The deepening low increases the pressure difference across the region and strengthens the wind. Moist air rising over the terrain also helps sustain rain. The windiest locations do not have to line up with the strongest radar echoes.

What to notice: Compare the timing of peak gusts in official coastal observations with the arrival of rain on radar. Use those remote views during hazardous conditions.

Source: NWS Juneau, November 4 at 9:58 p.m. AKST (November 5, 06:58 UTC).

2. Northern Mariana Islands: A disturbance can organize before its track is clear

When to watch: Friday night into Saturday morning, November 6–7, Chamorro time.

NWS Tiyan expects tropical disturbance Invest 99W to pass through the far northern islands, possibly between Alamagan and Agrihan. Tinian and Saipan, farther south, could see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday night. Surf may be elevated along east-facing reefs. The track and strength could still change.

As a disturbance organizes, thunderstorms can cluster around its developing circulation. Its rain and surf can affect islands away from the center.

What to notice: Watch satellite loops for whether clouds keep wrapping around the same area over several frames. Use official updates for the center position and strength because one burst of thunderstorms cannot establish either.

Source: NWS Tiyan, Guam, November 5 at 5:38 p.m. ChST (07:38 UTC).

3. Northern Rocky Mountain Front: Why gusts vary across short distances

When to watch: Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, November 6–7, Mountain time.

NWS Great Falls expects strong west winds to favor Montana's Northern Rocky Mountain Front and nearby plains. Local gusts of 60–80 mph are possible. Winds may be weaker farther east, and the direction of winds aloft adds uncertainty about where the strongest gusts will reach the surface.

Air flowing over a ridge can oscillate on the downwind side. Under favorable conditions, those mountain waves can speed up winds near the foothills. A tight pressure difference can support strong background winds at the same time.

What to notice: Compare peak gusts at official stations along the east slopes with stations farther out on the plains over the same hours. Terrain exposure can make the reports differ even when nearby radar looks quiet.

Source: NWS Great Falls, forecast discussion from November 5 at 3:13 a.m. MST, with a 4:39 a.m. MST aviation update (11:39 UTC).

4. Upper Peninsula: Why rain may turn to snow first in the west

When to watch: Late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, November 5–6.

NWS Marquette expects the western Upper Peninsula to begin mixing rain with snow late Thursday, with lake-effect snow favored later at night. The milder eastern counties may still have a mix by Friday morning. Light accumulation is increasingly likely in favored western and north-central high terrain.

Cold air crossing Lake Superior takes up heat and moisture, which can keep showers going downwind. Terrain adds lift as that air moves uphill. A colder layer near the ground in the west makes it more likely that flakes survive to the surface there.

What to notice: Follow showers downwind of Lake Superior on radar, then compare their timing with temperature and precipitation reports at higher and lower elevations. Radar alone cannot tell you what is landing on a road.

Source: NWS Marquette, November 5 at 4:51 a.m. EST (09:51 UTC).

5. Western Washington: A warmer break between two rounds

When to watch: Thursday night through early Sunday, November 5–8, Pacific time.

NWS Seattle expects winds to build Thursday night into Friday, with the strongest early gusts near the coast and north of Everett. Most early rain favors the Olympic Peninsula and areas near the Canadian border. Seattle's rain is expected later Friday as a cold front moves southeast.

Saturday may start dry and warmer as a new low brings the region into its warm sector, the area between its warm and cold fronts. Another round of rain and gusty winds is forecast later Saturday into early Sunday as the next cold front approaches.

What to notice: Compare the first wind increase on the coast with the later arrival of rain in Seattle. Check temperatures Saturday morning and then follow the next band on radar. Each change marks a different part of the frontal sequence.

Source: NWS Seattle/Tacoma, November 5 at 2:20 a.m. PST (10:20 UTC).

Based on National Weather Service forecast discussions. For current forecasts and warnings, visit weather.gov.