Weather to Watch: November 3, 2026

Five places to watch on November 3, with a different lesson in each: a departing storm system, persistent river flow, lake-fed showers, coastal winds and clouds ahead of rain. These are forecasts to compare with observations, not reports that every expected outcome has occurred.

1. Tulsa: Follow what remains behind the storm line

When to watch: Tuesday morning through the afternoon and evening, November 3.

NWS Tulsa's late-Monday discussion described a line of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front, supported by instability and winds changing with height. Its 5:29 AM CST Tuesday aviation update expected lingering showers near northwest Arkansas terminals to end during the morning, followed by persistent low clouds. The broader discussion also allowed some light rain behind the departing system later Tuesday.

A front, the storm line and the cloud shield do not have to pass a place together. Storm development depends on moisture, instability, wind shear and lift; sunrise alone is not an explanation for weakening.

What to notice: Compare several hours of radar with the wind shift. Separate the main line moving east from any lighter rain or cloudiness behind it. Radar shape alone cannot confirm a tornado. Use current NWS warnings for any remaining hazards.

Sources: NWS Tulsa, issued November 2 at 11:40 PM CST, checked against the November 3, 5:31 AM CST update. The older discussion's watch end time is not current warning guidance.

2. Phoenix: Dry skies can coexist with high river flows

When to watch: November 3 through the week, following current river guidance.

NWS Phoenix's 4:21 AM MST discussion describes dry weather alongside continuing high water in the Salt, Verde and Gila systems. Large releases from Bartlett and Granite Reef dams were still feeding water downstream, even as flooding on some smaller streams subsided.

The atmosphere supplies rainfall, but a river also responds to water moving through its watershed and reservoir operations. A clear sky above a gauge does not mean the upstream supply has stopped. Different parts of the river system can therefore recede at different rates.

What to notice: Compare official gauge trends along the system rather than judging river conditions from local rainfall. Use remote observations and heed closures; do not approach flooded crossings or enter the rivers to inspect the flow.

Source: NWS Phoenix, November 3 at 4:21 AM MST.

3. Marquette: Watch broad rain give way to lake-fed showers

When to watch: Rain through midweek, with the lake-effect transition forecast for November 5-6.

NWS Marquette expects repeated rain as low pressure lingers near the Great Lakes. Later, colder air behind the system could support lake-enhanced and then lake-effect precipitation downwind of Lake Superior. Rain remains the main forecast type, with some snow possibly mixing in as cooling continues.

Relatively warm lake water can supply heat and moisture to colder air crossing it. That can keep showers going after the larger rain shield changes or moves away. Wind direction helps determine which shore areas receive them.

What to notice: Compare broad rain coverage with any later, more focused showers extending inland from the lake. Check wind direction and surface reports together. A radar echo does not establish whether rain or snow is reaching a particular road.

Source: NWS Marquette, November 3 at 5:23 AM EST. The discussion differs slightly between sections on the later wind direction, so the exact favored corridor remains uncertain.

4. Southcentral Alaska: Terrain can focus a coastal wind corridor

When to watch: November 3 into November 4.

NWS Anchorage's Monday-evening forecast brings another front toward Southcentral Alaska. It forecasts a barrier jet and a corridor of storm-force winds offshore along the northern Gulf coast, south of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. This is not a forecast of those winds throughout Anchorage or every inland community.

When stable low-level air encounters a mountain barrier, it can turn and accelerate along it. Rain and stronger winds may concentrate near the exposed coast while terrain leaves nearby lee areas comparatively dry.

What to notice: Compare official coastal and inland observations alongside the terrain, rather than treating one station as representative of the whole region. Follow current marine forecasts remotely; do not seek out exposed shores during the event.

Source: NWS Anchorage, November 2 at 5:48 PM AKST.

5. Atlanta: Low clouds and approaching rain tell different parts of the story

When to watch: November 3 through November 5, with broader rain forecast for November 4.

NWS Peachtree City expects a cool-air wedge to keep low clouds over much of north Georgia into Tuesday afternoon. Moisture returning ahead of a cold front then raises rain chances Tuesday night, followed by more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday. Limited instability is one reason the office does not expect severe weather in this forecast.

A shallow, stable layer near the ground can maintain gray skies even while the larger weather pattern changes above it. Returning moisture and frontal lift can increase rain without first producing a warm, sunny interval or widespread strong thunderstorms.

What to notice: Compare the low-cloud ceiling with radar coverage over time. A ceiling lifting briefly is different from the frontal rain ending. The front is forecast to slow on Thursday, so use updated NWS guidance for how long rain persists locally.

Sources: NWS Peachtree City, November 3 at 3:14 AM EST, checked against the 6:46 AM EST update.

Based on National Weather Service forecast discussions. For current forecasts and warnings, visit weather.gov.