Weather to Watch: October 28, 2026

Today's five lessons connect changing wind and temperature layers with what reaches the ground or coast. The October 28 selection includes Wednesday conditions and clearly dated outlooks for later this week.

1. Marianas: showers and rising seas follow different clocks

When to watch: Wednesday night, October 28, through Friday, October 30, in Chamorro Standard Time.

NWS Tiyan describes an elongated trough stretching toward Typhoon In-fa and drifting south across the islands. Its forecast brings showers and isolated thunderstorms to Tinian and Saipan early Wednesday night, Rota overnight and Guam later that night. Shower coverage is expected to decrease after the trough passes each island.

The marine outlook has a separate timeline. Seas are forecast to become hazardous from late Thursday as In-fa approaches the far northern CNMI. The discussion places the greatest destructive-wind concern near the storm's uncertain path through the northern islands, rather than treating Guam and the entire island chain as one location.

What to notice: Compare radar and satellite shower movement island by island, then check marine forecasts separately. A break in local showers does not establish safe seas. Follow current NWS tropical-cyclone bulletins for changes in the track and affected islands; use remote observations rather than approaching hazardous water.

Source: NWS Tiyan discussion, issued October 28 at 5:42 PM ChST.

2. Goodland region: afternoon clearing can precede another foggy morning

When to watch: Wednesday morning, October 28, then overnight into Thursday, October 29. Further morning fog is possible through Saturday.

NWS Goodland reports fog across much of the Kansas–Colorado–Nebraska Tri-State area. Moist air arriving from the east and southeast helps maintain it. A passing front and a shift to west or northwest winds are expected to help clear the fog, with clearer skies by mid to late Wednesday afternoon.

That clearing does not remove the next night's ingredients. The forecast turns winds back toward the east and southeast, returning moisture near the ground as temperatures cool. Fog may begin in patches in northwest Kansas and expand toward Thursday sunrise. Thursday's stronger easterly flow could keep fog or low cloud in eastern parts of the area longer.

What to notice: Compare visibility reports at several stations with wind direction and temperature–dew-point differences. A clearer afternoon view is one stage of the pattern, not proof that the next morning will be clear. Surface reports help distinguish fog from a low cloud layer seen on satellite.

Source: NWS Goodland discussion, issued October 28 at 3:42 AM MDT.

3. Fairbanks: the temperature above the ground changes the outcome

When to watch: Wednesday night, October 28, into Thursday morning, October 29, with a transition to rain and snow showers by Thursday afternoon.

NWS Fairbanks describes warmer air moving above a shallow cold layer in central Interior valleys, including the Fairbanks area. Light freezing rain or sleet could develop as precipitation returns from the west Wednesday afternoon and spreads east overnight.

The distinction matters. Freezing rain reaches the surface as liquid and freezes on contact with freezing surfaces. Sleet consists of ice pellets that refreeze before reaching the ground. A warm layer above colder air can support either outcome depending on the depth and temperature of those layers. A thermometer at ground level cannot describe the whole column of air.

The discussion also identifies a separate Wednesday-morning concern: Tuesday night's cooling can refreeze existing moisture and slush before new precipitation arrives.

What to notice: Compare official precipitation-type reports and road information with surface temperature trends. Radar echoes alone do not establish freezing rain, sleet or the condition of a road. The overnight mixed-precipitation forecast is a possibility, not a report that icing has already occurred.

Source: NWS Fairbanks discussion, issued October 27 at 1:56 PM AKDT.

4. Eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin: storm ingredients must overlap

When to watch: Wednesday afternoon and evening, October 28.

NWS Twin Cities expects an approaching disturbance and surface front to lift warmer, moister air. Winds changing direction with height could help organize rotating storms. Whether that environment produces the stronger storms described in the discussion depends on sufficient heating and instability arriving at the right time.

Cloud cover is an important uncertainty because it can limit surface warming. The office describes a conditional tornado threat in eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, especially during mid to late afternoon, with hail and damaging winds also possible. It explicitly allows for the ingredients failing to come together. A favorable wind profile alone is not a tornado forecast for a particular town.

What to notice: Compare later NWS forecasts with observed cloud breaks, temperature and dew-point trends, and the eastward progression of storms on radar. These observations help explain how the forecast evolves; they do not replace official warnings or confirm a tornado from one radar image.

Source: NWS Twin Cities discussion, issued October 28 at 2:50 AM CDT.

5. Southcentral Alaska: morning fog and late-week rain are separate stages

When to watch: Wednesday morning, October 28, for fog; Thursday night, October 29, through Friday, October 30, for the stronger front.

NWS Anchorage's Tuesday-afternoon discussion expects dense fog to redevelop Tuesday night into Wednesday in favored areas around Anchorage, the northwest Kenai Peninsula and Turnagain Arm. That is the overnight period leading into this edition, rather than a forecast for Wednesday night.

A first, weaker system brings precipitation mainly from Kodiak toward the western Kenai and Susitna Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. A stronger front and an atmospheric river aloft follow Thursday night into Friday. Moist air rising along terrain can increase precipitation, so the regional pattern matters more than assuming Anchorage represents all of Southcentral Alaska.

The office expresses high confidence in heavy rain for coastal areas and the Cook Inlet–Susitna corridor, while retaining uncertainty in the front's timing. Northern and western parts of the Susitna Valley may initially be cold enough for snow.

What to notice: Compare morning visibility and cloud ceilings separately from later precipitation trends. Track rain reports across the coast and valleys as the front advances, keeping elevation and local exposure in mind. One clearing fog report does not establish that the later rain event has weakened.

Source: NWS Anchorage discussion, issued October 27 at 4:35 PM AKDT.

This dated selection uses NWS discussions available by 6:30 AM Eastern on October 28. Both Alaska discussions were issued the previous local afternoon. For current forecasts and warnings, follow the National Weather Service.