Weather to Watch: October 22, 2026

A storm can move quickly while new cells keep crossing the same ground. A snow level can reach a valley without leaving the same accumulation as on a mountain. These five places offer useful comparisons for Thursday, October 22, and the coming days, from Southwest rainfall to Alaska's changing precipitation and Florida's coastal water levels.

1. Central and eastern Arizona: Watch where successive storms go

When to watch: Thursday morning through afternoon, October 22, with the focus shifting east through the day (MST).

NWS Phoenix says additional showers and thunderstorms remain possible Thursday, with the focus shifting north and east of Phoenix through the afternoon. Its 6:02 AM MST update notes waning confidence in morning storm coverage, while retaining the potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall. The discussion describes a strong Pacific low supplying lift, deep moisture and wind shear, the change in wind with height that can help storms organize.

Repeated rainfall matters as well as each storm's strength. The source identifies a setup for training, where successive cells follow similar paths, and persistent lifting over higher terrain. That can keep rain falling over the same area even while individual cells move through. Lower-elevation coverage remains less certain than the broad regional storm signal.

What to notice: Use several radar frames to compare the paths of successive cells, then check rainfall totals over the same interval. Follow current NWS warnings for decisions. A bright radar echo alone does not establish a storm's wind, hail or tornado threat.

Source: NWS Phoenix, issued Thursday, October 22, at 6:02 AM MST (13:02 UTC), including the updated morning aviation discussion.

2. New Mexico: Fast storm motion does not erase the effect of earlier rain

When to watch: Thursday, October 22, through Friday, October 23, with the concern spreading from northwest toward central areas (MDT).

NWS Albuquerque expects showers and storms from the central mountain chain westward Thursday and Thursday night, spreading east Friday while coverage decreases from the west. The incoming upper low is drawing unusually moist subtropical air northward. Storms may move northeast at about 35–50 mph, which can limit the time one cell spends over a location.

That helpful effect has limits. Repeated rounds can still add substantial rain, especially where earlier rainfall has already saturated the ground. The discussion distinguishes this flash-flood risk from the river forecast: rises are expected on rivers including the San Juan and Animas, but no river flooding was forecast at issuance. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible in stronger storms.

What to notice: Compare new rainfall with the preceding days' totals, and keep flash-flood warnings separate from river forecasts. A rapidly moving cell is only one part of the runoff story.

Source: NWS Albuquerque, issued Thursday, October 22, at 2:48 AM MDT (08:48 UTC).

3. Western Alaska: One moisture plume can bring coastal rain and mountain snow

When to watch: Thursday evening, October 22, through Saturday, October 24, with another system possible Sunday night into Monday (AKDT).

NWS Fairbanks describes a Bering Sea low bringing warmer, moist air toward western Alaska Thursday evening. Its warm front encounters cold air, so precipitation can fluctuate between rain and snow at lower elevations while higher terrain mostly remains snow. Heavy, dense snow is possible at lower elevations too; the southern slopes of the Brooks Range and hills north of Nome are favored for the largest snow totals through Sunday.

The moisture supply does not determine precipitation type on its own. The temperature profile and elevation matter too. Strong southeast winds Thursday night into Friday are forecast to turn southerly Saturday. Coastal flooding is possible in some locations south of the Seward Peninsula, while erosion and high surf are the main concerns farther north. Further systems Sunday night into Monday and Monday into Tuesday may renew these concerns; their tracks remain uncertain.

What to notice: Compare coastal and higher-elevation reports over matching times. Track changing temperatures and reported precipitation type alongside official forecasts. A rain report at one coastal station does not describe snow conditions in the Brooks Range.

Source: NWS Fairbanks, issued Thursday, October 22, at 5:03 AM AKDT (13:03 UTC).

4. Central and southwest Montana: Snow reaching lower elevations is not the same as accumulating there

When to watch: Friday, October 23, through Friday evening (MDT).

NWS Great Falls expects colder air to spread south Friday as precipitation moves across the region. Snow levels are forecast to fall from above 10,000 feet Thursday night toward valley and plains elevations by Friday evening. Temperatures may be warmest in the morning before falling during the afternoon.

The best accumulating snow is expected above about 4,500 feet. At lower elevations, the outcome depends partly on how soon rain changes to snow and how much precipitation remains afterward. A quick transition or heavier snowfall rates could create travel impacts despite initially warm pavement. Strong north winds are a separate concern, particularly in favored areas between Cut Bank and Havre.

What to notice: Compare a route's elevation with the changing snow level, then check snowfall and road-condition forecasts. Seeing snow fall does not establish the depth that will remain on the ground or road.

Source: NWS Great Falls, issued Thursday, October 22, at 4:13 AM MDT (10:13 UTC).

5. Southeast Florida: Compare the tide baseline with weather-driven changes

When to watch: High tides Thursday, October 22, especially the evening cycle, with further concerns through the weekend and early next week (EDT).

NWS Miami reports observed water levels already above predictions and forecasts moderate coastal flooding around high tides along South Florida's Atlantic coast. The discussion also gives a low, 10–30% chance of major coastal flooding beginning in the second half of the weekend. Those probabilities describe possible future conditions, not a confirmed outcome.

The coming high-tide cycle provides a higher starting point. Onshore winds can raise coastal water further, while rounds of heavy rain are forecast Saturday through Monday. The rainfall forecast has trended lower than in earlier discussions, but an overlap between heavy rain and high coastal water can still aggravate flooding. The atmosphere and the tide cycle need to be considered together.

What to notice: Compare each tide gauge with its own predicted tide and local flood thresholds. Add rainfall timing as a separate layer rather than reading a tide-gauge height as water depth on a road. Use official beach and marine guidance for continuing surf and rip-current hazards.

Source: NWS Miami, issued Thursday, October 22, at 1:10 AM EDT (05:10 UTC). Reported water-level observations are attributed to that discussion and were not independently measured for this article.

This October 22 edition was selected using discussions available by 6:30 AM Eastern. Before publication, the Arizona and Alaska sections were updated with their later Thursday morning discussions. Source times are shown above. Forecasts may change after issuance. For current forecasts and warnings, visit weather.gov.